Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 4)
The SPX index struggled to advance further during yesterday’s session, closing down 17bps and below the previously identified 5400 resistance level. There seems to be decent supply in the 5400/5500 range as the index is fading these levels once again. Momentum and trend indicators are mixed as are Spot VIX and VIX term structure. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Neutral. All said, I don’t like this set up and fully expect the MOTR signal to shift back to Negative as the index reverses and heads back down to the 5000 level. I would focus on the 5400 level (cash) and the 5364 level (front month futures – ESM5). Breaks below these levels should ignite some additional selling. I remain confident that my additional downside targets for the entire move of 4800, 4200 and 3700 will be achieved before this cycle ends.
Trade Support:
5000: ~20% Move Peak-to-Trough
4800: Dec 2021/Jan 2022 High
4200: ~50% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
3700: ~Nov 2022 Low and 61.8% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
Trade Resistance:
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5736: 50dma
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
6000: Previous Support
