Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 3)
The SPX index gained 79bps during yesterday’s session, closing at 5405. Price action was somewhat lackluster, hitting a mid-day low of 5358, then retaking 5400 and barely holding on into the close. Nevertheless, 5400 did hold (short term positive). However, momentum and trend indicators were mixed (short term negative). My Spot VIX trade signal remains “risk on” while VIX term structure remains “risk off”. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Neutral. As I wrote yesterday, “I remain conscious of how violent bear market rallies can and will be. Overall, the larger trade and greater risk from current levels is to the downside. I believe my additional downside targets for the entire move of 4800, 4200 and 3700 will be achieved before this cycle ends.”
Trade Support:
5000: ~20% Move Peak-to-Trough
4800: Dec 2021/Jan 2022 High
4200: ~50% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
3700: ~Nov 2022 Low and 61.8% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
Trade Resistance:
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close (TAKEN)
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5748: 50dma
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
6000: Previous Support
