Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 2)
The SPX index took back 1.81% on the session Friday, closing at 5363. The index continues to try and work higher off the Apr 7 low of 4835 and is now approaching resistance at 5400 and 5500. Momentum and trend, while still negative and damaged, continue to improve. Spot VIX closed at 37.56, 38% off the Apr 7 high (ref 60.13) and (my VIX trade signal) is now “risk on”. That said, VIX term structure remains “risk off”. Call it net neutral. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Neutral. I remain conscious of how violent bear market rallies can and will be. Overall, the larger trade and greater risk from current levels is to the downside. I believe my additional downside targets for the entire move of 4800, 4200 and 3700 will be achieved before this cycle ends.
Trade Support:
5000: ~20% Move Peak-to-Trough
4800: Dec 2021/Jan 2022 High
4200: ~50% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
3700: ~Nov 2022 Low and 61.8% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
Trade Resistance:
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5760: 50dma
6000: Previous Support
