Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 3)
The SPX index lost 1.10% on the session, closing at 5712. I had noted that the Mar 25 stick created a doji, representing “indecision/pause as the index begins to encounter more significant resistance from 5750 up to 5900.” Price action yesterday did reverse off that “indecision”, hitting an intraday low of 5694, essentially testing support at the base of the topping pattern at 5700. The 5700 level needs to hold, or I would expect a relatively aggressive slide back to 5500. Momentum and trend are flat. Spot VIX remains “risk on” while VIX Term Structure is neutral. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Positive. All said, I do not like the long trade here. I continue to believe that the greater risk overall remains skewed to the downside.
Trade Support:
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5000: ~20% Move Peak-to-Trough
Trade Resistance:
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5910: 50dma
6000: Previous Support
6100: Previous Resistance
6147: All-Time High
