Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 15)
The SPX index lost 1.39% during yesterday’s session, closing at 5521. This marked a -10.13% drawdown on a closing basis from peak-to-trough. The low of the day ticked at 5504, clearly testing the previously identified 5500 support level. Momentum and trend indicators continue to degrade. My Spot VIX signal is a Buy while VIX Term Structure remains “risk off”. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Negative. This has been the most relentless selloff I have seen since the 2008/2009 Credit Crisis Bear Market and I am very pleased that my MOTR Model identified the turn accurately. It has been extremely satisfying to work through the past three months of such volatility with solid positive returns. I do believe we will see some of the bleeding stop momentarily with counter trend rally upside potential to the 5700/5800 range. That said, my overall view has not changed. We are topping, not continuing higher, with a remaining downside target of 5000 likely. Any rallies from current levels should be sold, not chased.
Note: I will be traveling next week and unable to issue The Morning Technical Note. I will post the MOTR Signal on X @cmt_anthony each morning.
Trade Support:
6130: Previous Resistance (BROKEN)
6100: Previous Resistance (BROKEN)
6000: Previous Support (BROKEN)
5850/5900: Jan 14 / Jan 15 Gap (BROKEN)
5725: 200dma (BROKEN)
5700: Previous Support Sep/Oct (BROKEN)
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough (TESTED)
5000: ~20% Move Peak-to-Trough
Trade Resistance:
6250: Measured Move
6400: Measured Move
