Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 3)
The SPX Index fell for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, losing 47 bps to close at 5955. To note, the index did test the top of the previously identified 5850/5900 gap with a low of 5908. The 100dma (ref 5946) was also broken on an intra-day basis. This 5908 low marks a peak-to-trough move of -3.89% since the Feb 19 all-time high of 6147. Momentum and trend continue to degrade. Spot VIX has rallied trough-to-peak +42% since Feb 19 (makes sense). VIX Term Structure is neutral within my system and headed towards “risk off”. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains in Negative. All said, this downside trade has worked out very well. I continue to believe that rallies are to be sold as the larger risk remains to the downside.
Trade Support:
6130: Previous Resistance (BROKEN)
6100: Previous Resistance (BROKEN)
6000: Previous Support (BROKEN)
5850/5900: Jan 14 / Jan 15 Gap (TESTED)
5700: Previous Support Sep/Oct
Trade Resistance:
6250: Measured Move
6400: Measured Move
