Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 9)
The SPX Index fell 95bps during Friday’s session, closing at 6025. As I have continued to reiterate over the past few weeks, price is showing signs of topping near all-time highs as momentum and trend indicators continue to degrade. Additionally, Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure signals remain mixed/neutral. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Neutral. A shift to Negative under the current set up would lead to a significant move to the downside with a test of 5700 very likely. I have remained cautious since early December and have continued to note extreme volatility and a lack of conviction as the index has continued to test resistance at 6100 with an inability to break above. As I wrote last week, “there is more underlying risk than price would suggest. I remain very cautious, paired down and believe that the greater risk is to the downside.”
I will not be publishing a daily note until end of week due to travel. I will however update the MOTR signal on X (@cmt_anthony).
Trade Support:
6000: Previous Support
5950: Nov 7 Low
5770: Bottom of Nov 5 / Nov 6 Gap; Jan 13 Low
5700: Oct 31/ Nov 4 Lows
Trade Resistance:
6100: Dec 6 / Jan 21 Highs
6400: Measure Move
