Wednesday, February 5th, 2025

Market Summary:

Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 6)

The SPX Index continued its recovery from Monday’s low (ref 5923), gaining 72bps to close at 6037.  I know I have become somewhat repetitive over the past few weeks, so why stop now?  Momentum and trend indicators are divergent and continue to degrade.  Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure are stuck in a net neutral position.  The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Neutral.  All that said, I continue to see trade opportunities in a very high volatility, low conviction market which is still near all-time highs.  Broader stroke, I see risk skewed to the downside.  I fully expect the MOTR signal to shift to Negative in the coming week or two.

Trade Support:

6000: Previous Support (BROKEN/RETAKEN)

5950: Nov 7 Low (BROKEN/RETAKEN)

5770: Bottom of Nov 5 / Nov 6 Gap; Jan 13 Low

5700: Oct 31/ Nov 4 Lows

Trade Resistance:

6100: Dec 6 / Jan 21 Highs

6400: Measure Move

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