Tuesday, February 4th, 2025

Market Summary:

Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 5)

The SPX Index gapped down on the open, hit a low of 5923, and recovered somewhat to close down 76bps at 5994.  The index was hit hard, breaking below the previously identified support levels at 6000 and 5950 while also undercutting the Jan 27 “DeepSeek” low (ref 5962).  The technical damage to the index continues as I believe a significant top is forming.  Momentum and trend indicators continue to degrade.  Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure continue to volley between “risk on” and “risk off”.  The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains in Neutral.  All that said, I continue to see risk as skewed to the downside.  While we may see some aggressive rallies to trade, overall, the greater move to come is down.

Trade Support:

6000: Previous Support (BROKEN)

5950: Nov 7 Low (BROKEN – INTRADAY)

5770: Bottom of Nov 5 / Nov 6 Gap; Jan 13 Low

5700: Oct 31/ Nov 4 Lows

Trade Resistance:

6100: Dec 6 / Jan 21 Highs

6400: Measure Move

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