Friday, January 31st, 2025

Market Summary:

Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 3)

The SPX Index gained 53bps on the day, closing at 6071.  The session was extremely volatile with a high/low spread of 59 handles, and open/close spread of 21 handles and multiple 30+ point swings (some of which occurred in literal minutes).  The index is now at the upper end of 5770/6100 consolidation range.  As I have written previously, I continue to believe this consolidation is actual forming a top (bearish reversal) rather than a continuation pattern (bullish).  Momentum and trend indicators continue to fade.  However, Spot VIX and VIX term Structure have a bullish posture on the daily count.  In my view, this nets out as neutral.  The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains in Neutral.  The short-term price volatility has presented some great trading opportunities over the past few weeks.  That said, I remain near-term neutral and see longer term risk skewed to the downside.  If MOTR does shift to a Negative signal I believe it will be as efficient or more so than the December signal was.

Note: I suggested Gold (GCG5) was a strong strategic Buy on Dec 24.  These active contracts were trading at 2629 when I issued that note (First Notice is Jan 31).  Those contracts hit a high today at 2836 for a ~8% profit.

Trade Support:

6000: Previous Support

5950: Nov 7 Low

5770: Bottom of Nov 5 / Nov 6 Gap; Jan 13 Low

5700: Oct 31/ Nov 4 Lows

Trade Resistance:

6100: Dec 6 / Jan 21 Highs

6400: Measure Move

Scroll to Top