Monday, January 27th, 2025

Market Summary:

Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 5)

The SPX Index faded just 29bps during Friday’s session, closing at 6101.  That said, the Index also achieved a new all-time high (ref 6128) but, more concerningly broke back below previous support at 6100 with a low of 6088.  This retest at 6100 (and minor violation) are digestible as long as 6100 holds and internals don’t fade.  As of now that’s the scenario with some additional bullish signals from Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure.  Additionally, the ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Positive.  I continue to see near term upside as probable as I remain very focused on whether the Index can repair the longer-term damage that was done over the past two months.  My gut is that this repair will not occur.  So, more near term upside likely, but I remain very negative on the coming quarters.  As far as positioning I am paired down and waiting for a better set up.

Trade Support:

6100: Dec 6 / Jan 21 Highs

6000: Previous Support

5950: Nov 7 Low

5770: Bottom of Nov 5 / Nov 6 Gap; Jan 13 Low

5700: Oct 31/ Nov 4 Lows

Trade Resistance:

6400: Measure Move

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