Friday, January 24th, 2025

Market Summary:

Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 4)

The SPX ran 53bps on the session, hitting a new all-time high of 6118.73 and closing at 6118.71.  As I wrote yesterday, “a breakout above 6100 is the more likely outcome.”  This is what we are watching unfold.  Although I have remained open to this near-term rally, this is way beyond what I expected.  I am shocked and now focused on whether the Index can repair the longer-term damage that was done over the past two months.  Momentum and trend continue to improve.  Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure remain in a “risk on” posture.  The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Positive.  All else equal, the Index seems poised to move to the top of the channel at ~6400.

Trade Support:

6000: Previous Support

5950: Nov 7 Low

5770: Bottom of Nov 5 / Nov 6 Gap; Jan 13 Low

5700: Oct 31/ Nov 4 Lows

Trade Resistance:

6100: Dec 6 High

6400: Measure Move

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