Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 4)
The SPX ran 53bps on the session, hitting a new all-time high of 6118.73 and closing at 6118.71. As I wrote yesterday, “a breakout above 6100 is the more likely outcome.” This is what we are watching unfold. Although I have remained open to this near-term rally, this is way beyond what I expected. I am shocked and now focused on whether the Index can repair the longer-term damage that was done over the past two months. Momentum and trend continue to improve. Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure remain in a “risk on” posture. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Positive. All else equal, the Index seems poised to move to the top of the channel at ~6400.
Trade Support:
6000: Previous Support
5950: Nov 7 Low
5770: Bottom of Nov 5 / Nov 6 Gap; Jan 13 Low
5700: Oct 31/ Nov 4 Lows
Trade Resistance:
6100: Dec 6 High
6400: Measure Move