Tuesday, January 14th, 2025

Market Summary:

Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 4)

The SPX Index opened yesterday on a gap down at 5782, hit an early session low of 5773, did a ton of work and then lifted to close just above the 100dma (ref 5822) at 5836.  While the gain on the day was a modest 16bps, the stick created stopped the bleeding for now.  In fact, technically, the Nov 5/Nov 6 gap which I have been focused on did fill as the Nov 5 high was 5783.  This is a short term positive.  I did and still believe that 5700 will be tested in the near term but for now the Index filled the gap and reversed to the upside.  Momentum and trend indicators as well as Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure all remain negative and “risk off”.  The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Negative.  Bottom line, I believe the Index is topping.  This is a process and aggressive price action in both directions should be expected.  Ultimately, any upside is to be sold with risk skewed to the downside.  Targets remain 5700 and 5500 for the near term.

Trade Support:

5864: Nov 6 Open/Low (BROKEN)

5830: Dec 20 and Jan 2 Lows (BROKEN)

5700: Oct 31 Low/Bottom of Gap

5100: Intermediate Term Downside Target

4800: Intermediate Term Downside Target

Trade Resistance:

5950: Nov 7 Low

6000: Previous Support

6100: Dec 6 High

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