Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 8)
The SPX Index closed essentially flat at 5867 after a failed attempt to rally very early in the session. The high on the day was 5935 which was actually just 10 points shy of the 38.2% retracement of the Dec 18 bar. The Index did hold above the previously identified support level at 5864, and it needs to. A break at this level will set up for the Nov 5/Nov 6 gap (5783/5864) to be filled and potentially a test of 5700. Internals remain negative and have degraded further. Spot VIX and VIX Term Structure remain in a “risk off” posture. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Negative. Risk remains skewed to the downside despite the possibility of a rally into Dec 31. As I wrote yesterday “I could see a push back towards the 6000 level to close out the year. To be very clear, I would be a seller of any such rally as I believe this move has additional downside to come.”
Trade Support:
6000: Even Target (BROKEN)
5976: Nov 9 Open/Low (BROKEN)
5947: Nov 7 Open/Low (BROKEN)
5864: Nov 6 Open/Low
Trade Resistance:
6100: Dec 6 High
6150: Measured Move
