Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 6)
The SPX Index closed down 39bps yesterday at 6050. The Index hit a low of 6035 on the heaviest volume since Nov 15. Momentum and trend indicators continue to fade. Spot VIX rallied ~10% and is now up ~20% for the month of December. I have continued to write over the past week that “there is a high probability of a spike in Spot VIX and a shift in VIX Term Structure to “risk off” in the near term.” There is a lot of room to the upside in volatility. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Negative. I believe that risk is skewed to the downside in the current set up and losses could accelerate in Q1. I remain net short below 6100.
Note: Mind the 5800/5850 gap below (just saying)……..
Trade Support:
6000: Even Target
5976: Nov 9 Open/Low
5947: Nov 7 Open/Low
5864: Nov 6 Open/Low
Trade Resistance:
6100: Dec 6 High
6150: Measured Move
