Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 4)
The SPX Index ended Friday’s session dead flat at 6051 although the high/low range for the day was relatively wide at 6078/6035 (43 points). The Index essentially opened at the highs and faded for the balance of the cash session. The Index has failed to break above resistance at 6100 and is now ~80bps below the recent all-time high achieved on Dec 6 (ref 6099). Internals have gradually degraded as well as volumes remain below average. Spot VIX and Term Structure remain in a “risk on” posture but I see a high probability of that changing aggressively over the near term. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Negative. Overall, my view remains the same. As I wrote last week, “I continue to believe that there is more room for the Index to fade heading into year end. Risk is skewed to the downside and could potentially accelerate in Q1.”
Trade Support:
6000: Even Target
5976: Nov 9 Open/Low
5947: Nov 7 Open/Low
5864: Nov 6 Open/Low
Trade Resistance:
6100: Dec 6 High
6150: Measured Move
