Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 8)
The SPX Index hit an incremental new all-time high (ref 6094) but faded into the bell, closing down 19bps at 6075. The stall in price came with lighter than average volume and dull internals. Spot VIX and Term Structure remain in a “risk on” stance. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model signal remains Positive. Bottom line, risk remains skewed to the upside but this feels toppy and I could see a surprise retracement back to 6000 before year end. I would also note that I am watching the Russell 2k (small caps) very closely here as it is clearly diverging from the SPX (large caps) this month. For December, the R2k is -1.51% while the SPX is +50bps and the NDX is +1.26%. Not the end of the world but I am watching for additional signals that the air may be leaking from this balloon as we head into 2025.
Trade Support:
6000: Even Target
5976: Nov 9 Open/Low
5947: Nov 7 Open/Low
5864: Nov 6 Open/Low
Trade Resistance:
6150: Measured Move
