Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 4)
The SPX Index was up 53bps yesterday, hitting a high of 5963 and closing at 5948. Keep in mind the support resistance range in focus has been 5864/5947. So, price action during yesterday’s session produced some good work around the 5947 resistance level. This key short-term level was broken on an intraday basis but essentially held for the close. What will be key over the next few sessions is whether the Index can break back and hold above 5947. Overall, market internals are flat to weak, volume was slightly below average and I see Spot VIX as ready to shoot higher with a coming test of at least 20 in the near term (ref close 16.87). Along with this last point, I do believe VIX Term Structure is poised to shift hard to risk off. This is worth paying attention to. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model remains Negative. I am cautious at current levels within the current setup. I continue to see risk as skewed to the downside regardless of yesterday’s hold and despite what should be seasonally bullish biases.
Trade Support:
5976: Nov 9 Open/Low (broken)
5947: Nov 7 Open/Low (broken)
5864: Nov 6 Open/Low (broken – intraday)
5783: Nov 5 High
5733: Sep 19 High
Trade Resistance:
6000: Even Target
6017: Nov 11 High
