Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 1)
The SPX Index closed the session +39bps at 5893. More importantly, the Index was able to hold the previously identified support level at 5864 on both an intra-day and closing basis. Despite that win, momentum continued to degrade and volume was well below average. Additionally, Spot VIX seems to be poised for some additional upside from its closing print of 15.58. Finally, the ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model shifted from Neutral to Negative. All that said, my opinion has not changed. As I wrote yesterday, “I expect 5864 to break, setting up for a filling of the first “Trump Gap” down to 5783 (Nov 5 high). As this gap is filled, I would expect Spot VIX and Term Structure to shift higher as well with a current upside target for Spot VIX in the 20 to 23 range. Simply put, in my opinion, this dip is not done.”
Trade Support:
5976: Nov 9 Open/Low (broken)
5947: Nov 7 Open/Low (broken)
5864: Nov 6 Open/Low (broken – intraday)
5783: Nov 5 High
5733: Sep 19 High
Trade Resistance:
6000: Even Target
6017: Nov 11 High
