Market Summary:
Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 5)
The SPX Index closed up 17bps at 5832. This close came after a very early dip and low of 5802 as the Index once again held support at the 5800 level. The Index did manage to break above the resistance line of the current downtrend channel (see chart) but closed well within the range. All said, price was more constructive than I expected but has not cleared the current overhang just yet. The ICAP Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model remains Negative. Risk remains skewed to the downside. This would change with some improvement of internals coupled with price managing a breakout and close above the current downtrend channel. Until we see this, I continue to expect 5800 to break and 5733 to be tested before we start filling in ballots on Nov 5. Either way, as we approach what will be a major volatility event (up or down), I am paired down across the board.
Trade Support:
5800/5796: Oct 9 High
5733: Sep 19 High
5686: Sep 19 Low
5615: Sep 18 Low
Trade Resistance:
5832: 10dma
5878: Projection Level
5970: Projection Level
6000: Even Target
