Market Summary:
Current Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 2)
After an early cash session test of support at 5600 (low 5604) the SPX Index gained its footing and inched higher, closing up a very modest 13bps at 5633. Internals continued to improve slowly as my Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model remains Positive (day 2). The Index is poised to test near term resistance at 5645 as “you know who” is meeting and talking about “you know what” tomorrow (yes, the FOMC rate decision). Bottom line, risk is skewed to the upside but there is a note of caution as the Index is now within 1% of all-time highs and facing two legitimate resistance levels at 5645 and 5669. As I wrote yesterday, “I have the ICAP Portfolio net long with dry powder available for a breakout above all-time highs at 5669 and ready for a potential failure at the 5645 level”. The model is the model, but my gut is a little skeptical at the moment.
Trade Support:
5600: Previous Support/Resistance
5562: Jul 8 low
5533: 10dma
5512: 50dma
5500: Jun 20 high and Jul 19 low; Base of Aug 15 Gap Up
5400: Previous Support
Trade Resistance:
5645: Previous Resistance; Sep 11 High (ref 5642)
5669: Jul 16 High
