Market Summary:
Current Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 2)
The SPX Index lost 30bps on the day as the 50dma (ref 5506) and the 5500 levels were both violated. The Index did recover from an intraday low of 5480 to close above 5500. However, the recent move back down from 5645 resistance has been significant. Identified support levels continue to break (see below) as negative momentum and volume increase. Additionally, as I have stated, my Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model went Neutral back on Aug 22 and flipped to outright Negative two sessions agon on Sep 3. The VIX is also finding a comfortable spot above 20 as term structure quietly works its way towards backwardation (risk off). Overall, I continue to see risk skewed to the downside and am becoming more confident that a test of the 5400 level is very likely in the near term.
Have a great weekend all.
Trade Support:
5583: 10dma (BROKEN)
5600: Previous support/resistance (BROKEN)
5562: Jul 8 low (BROKEN)
5506: 50dma (BROKEN)
5500: Jun 20 high and Jul 19 low; Base of Aug 15 Gap Up (BROKEN – INTRADAY BASIS)
5450: 38.2% Retracement for the recent trough-to-peak move (Aug 5 – Aug 30)
5400: Previous Support
Trade Resistance:
5645: Previous support/resistance
5669: Jul 16 high
