Market Summary:
Current Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 3)
The focus of this note over the past few days has been the Momentum/Trend (MOTR) Model shift from Positive to Neutral, a developing shift in the VIX curve and near-term SPX price resistance at 5645. During yesterday’s session the SPX Index fell ~30bps closing at 5616. The MOTR Model remains Neutral and continues to weaken. Spot VIX remained above 16 and was up ~2% as the slope of the curve edges closer to 0 (risk off). All in, I see risk here very evenly balanced with the Index focusing on the 5600/5650 support/resistance range. I remain cautious here and have reduced most of my long exposure. I am positioned slightly short with plenty of dry powder available to participate in the next move whether that be to the downside or upside. I will continue to focus on internals and a potential MOTR shift either to Positive or Negative.
Trade Support:
5600: Previous support/resistance
5563: 10dma
5562: Jul 8 low
5500: Jun 20 high and Jul 19 low
5491: 50dma
Trade Resistance:
5645: Previous support/resistance
5669: Jul 16 high
