Market Summary:
Current Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 4)
The SPX continues to grind higher, adding ~1% during yesterday’s session to close at 5608. This was the first close above 5600 since the Index was at all-time highs on Jul 16 (ref close 5667). My Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal remains Positive and is now in its 4th day. The current return on this signal is +2.81%. The Index has now rallied trough-to-peak over 9.50% in just 11 sessions and is within ~60 handles of all-time highs. The MOTR Signal remains strong and risk is skewed to the upside. I will continue to watch for divergence and increased risk of price reversion. However, for now the Index seems poised to retest the previous high at 5669 in the near term. As a side note, I do run additional analysis on the VIX and VIX Term Structure. We are now a little over halfway through an S&P 500 Buy Signal based on that VIX model. That signal hit on the Aug 5 close (ref 5186) and has returned over 8% so far. All said, the risk on trade has found itself back at a “priced for perfection” level very quickly.
Trade Support:
5500: Jun 20 high and Jul 19 low
5469: 50dma
5404: 10dma
5400: Prior Support/Resistance
5328: 100dma
5200: Previous Support
5119: Aug 5 low
Trade Resistance:
5622: Jul 17 high
5669: Jul 16 high
