Market Summary:
Current Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 18)
The SPX Index was up less than one handle yesterday as price action within the recent rally off the Aug 5 low calmed a bit. The session showed some indecision and potential pause with a high/low spread of 46 points and an open/close spread of just 7. With these spreads, yesterday’s stick is the tightest of the last 6 on both measures.
My Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) has now been Negative for 18 full sessions with a max profit from the MOTR signal currently standing at ~6.5% and a current profit of ~3.6% (on a closing price basis). While the MOTR signal remains Negative there continues to be improvement as the Index bounces off the 5119 level (Aug 5). The 5370/5400 range is expected to act as decent resistance. That said, as I wrote yesterday, “I am conscious of a real reversion in price to the upside and the potential for a shift back to Neutral or even Positive if price continues to improve. Risk does remain to the downside but internals away from the model suggest there may be more upside from here for the time being. For that to continue the Index needs to hold above the 100dma and it must absolutely hold the 5200 level below.”
Trade Support:
5314: 100dma
5200: Previous Support
5119: Aug 5 low
5037: 200dma
4840: 38.2% Retracement (Oct 2022 low to Jul 2024 high)
Trade Resistance:
5338: 10dma
5400: Low/Base of the June 12 Gap
5448: 50dma
5500: June 20 high and Jul 19 low
5669: Jul 15 high
