Market Summary:
Current Momentum/Trend Model (MOTR) Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 17)
The SPX Index has now seen a peak-to-trough move of down of just under 10%.
On Jul 18 my internal Momentum/Trend (MOTR) model flipped from Neutral to Negative.
We have now been Negative for 17 full sessions with a max profit from the MOTR signal currently standing at ~6.5% and a current profit of ~3.6% (on a closing price basis).
While the signal remains Negative, there has been some improvement in momentum coming off the Aug 5 low (ref 5119). Additionally, Friday’s price broke and closed above the Aug 7 (ref 5330) and the 100dma (ref 5312). The index is now ~4% higher than the Aug 5 low and is hitting its head at the 10dma (ref 5350). The current Negative signal is deep and has been profitable. I am conscious of a real reversion in price to the upside and the potential for a shift back to Neutral or even Positive if price continues to improve. Risk does remain to the downside but internals away from the model suggest there may be more upside from here for the time being. For that to continue the Index needs to hold above the 100dma and it must absolutely hold the 5200 level below.
Trade Support:
5312: 100dma
5200: Previous Support
5119: Aug 5 low
5032: 200dma
4840: 38.2% Retracement (Oct 2022 low to Jul 2024 high)
Trade Resistance:
5350: 10dma
5400: Low/Base of the June 12 Gap
5446: 50dma
5500: June 20 high and Jul 19 low
5669: Jul 15 high
