Market Summary:
Well, that was ugly!!!!
Ironically, after pounding the table with warning signs the past 6 weeks there’s not much to say today. I have not seen a market like this since 2007-09 and I am confident there’s more to come. The SPX has now seen a peak-to-trough drawdown of ~10%. Yesterday’s low of 5119 with confirming momentum/trend indicators keeps the index on track to achieve the remaining downside targets I had set at the 200dma (ref 5011) and 4840 (38.2% Retracement of Oct 2022 low (ref 3491) to Jul 2024 high (5669). As I have stated, my internal momentum/trend model (MOTR) had shifted to Negative back on July 18 and remains so. While aggressive, short-lived rallies should be expected as we work through the current drawdown, I would not be inclined to participate. Risk remains to the downside.
Trade Support:
5011: 200dma
4840: 38.2% Retracement (Oct 2022 low to Jul 2024 high)
Trade Resistance:
5400: Low/Base of the June 12 Gap
5449: 50dma
5497: 10dma
5500: June 20 high and Jul 19 low
5669: Jul 15 high
