Friday, June 28th, 2024

Market Summary:

The SPX index continues to hold the 10dma (ref 5464) as the trading range has tightened from 5400/5500 to 5450/5500.  Although intraday price action is indecisive, the index has achieved higher highs and higher lows over the past three sessions as it grinds back towards the all-time high of 5505.  Aside from general concerns such as below average volumes and extremely weak breadth (nothing new) I continue to see my momentum count fade as the index consolidates at current levels (negative divergence).  All said, I remain confident that my model is correct, and that risk is skewed to the downside.  A break above 5500 with confirming momentum counts would shift my view. Short of that, I do expect the index to test support at 5400 in the near term with the additional downside risk of filling the 5375-5400 gap and potentially testing 5300.

I will be off next week for the 4th of July holiday.  I hope everyone enjoys the holiday as well (GBA).

I will issue my next report on Friday, July 5th.

Please note that all current and archived reports can be found at https://islandcapitalinvestments.com/ .

You can also sign up for email delivery of this note on the site.

Trade Support:

5464:  10dma

5400:  Low/Base of the June 12 Gap

5300:  Downside Target based on a 100-point measured move and 38.2% Retracement

Trade Resistance:

5500:  June 20 High

Scroll to Top