ES1 (SP500 Generic Front Month) – 8.16.23
*In mid-July I identified 4631 as an upside target/resistance level to focus on. At that time the index was trading ~4500. On July 27 the index hit that target (high 4634) and has subsequently sold off ~4%. Yesterday’s low of 4447 was below the short term support level identified over the past week at 4460 and also below the 50dma (ref 4482) which has been a focus as well. As I have had a negative bias since August 1 (ref 4600), I continue to feel that price action remains negative with confirming momentum (M1, M2). As I stated in yesterday’s note, “I continue to feel the market is ready for another leg down with 4400 set as an easily achievable downside target in the near term”. For the time being I am sticking to this view.
Trading Support:
- 4400: Previous Support
- 4300: Previous
Trading Resistance:
- 4482: 50dma
- 4493: 10dma
- 4500: Previous Resistance; 76.4% Retracement Level
- 4550: Previous short term support
- 4631: Mar 2022 Peak
Chart 1 (ES1 Daily Bars)
