ES1 (SP500 Generic Front Month) – 8.15.23
*I stated yesterday that I “continue to feel risk is to the downside” and that I would focus on a short term support/resistance range of 4460/4515(10dma). The high/low range for yesterday’s full session was 4507/4465, fitting perfectly within our identified range. The index, as of this morning, hit an overnight high of 4517 and are now down ~60bps at 4478. Momentum is negative and the 10dma (ref 4505) is downward sloping and acting as decent trading resistance. In addition, I would note that this is the first time the 50dma has been tested since late May at the ~4100 level (S3). Price action and momentum today is much more negative than it was three months ago. I continue to feel the market is ready for another leg down with 4400 set as an easily achievable downside target in the near term.
Trading Support:
- 4480: 50dma
- 4400: Previous Support
- 4300: Previous Resistance
Trading Resistance:
- 4500: Previous Resistance; 76.4% Retracement Level
- 4505: 10dma
- 4550: Previous short term support
- 4631: Mar 2022 Peak
Chart 1 (ES1 Daily Bars)
