What you need to know
ES1 (SP500 Generic Front Month) – 7.14.23
On Wednesday I posed the question, would “C” prove to be the third fade from resistance at 4500 or would the Index breakout to the upside? I have clearly been of the opinion that the Index would not be able to breakout higher and, although I was correct on the first two fades (A, B), I was wrong this time (C). At this point, after creating a higher low off the A/B fades (S4, S5), price has broken and closed above major resistance (4500). Momentum (M1, M2) is confirming with a shift to positive. Although I think the move once again is extended I could easily see momentum carrying the Index to a near term upside target of 4586. This level represents the peaks of a double top (DT) formed back in Feb 2022 and is approaching the Mar 29 peak of 4631. Essentially 4500 has now become support and is the dividing line between upside and downside bias in my opinion.
Trading Support:
- 4500: Previous Resistance; 76.4% Retracement Level
- 4485: 10dma
- 4400: Previous Support
- 4300: Previous Resistance; 50dma at 4315
Trading Resistance:
- 4586: Feb 2022 Double Top Peak
- 4631: Mar 2022 Peak
